2026 Tony Awards Predictions

Was this the worst year of new musicals in recent memory? Was this the best year of revivals...ever? Will Schmigadoon! get snubbed? Will Ragtime sweep? We find out in a week. Let's make some predictions!

If you want to play along with the prediction game, here are the rules:

For each category, you make two guesses as to the winner. If your first choice proves correct, you score three points. If your second choice proves correct, you score one point. If you are feeling exceptionally confident, you can select the same nominee twice, netting 4 total points if you are correct.

Most points at the end of the night wins glory and bragging rights...until next year.

Play along here: https://forms.gle/M19eF6khoZqrnqLE7

If you want to play, you're highly encouraged to submit your guesses first before reading on!

Promoted to Patron's 2026 Tony Predictions are below.

Best Costume Design of a Play

Nominees:

• Brenda Abbandandolo (Dog Day Afternoon)
• Qween Jean (Liberation)
• Jeff Mahshie (Fallen Angels)
• Emilio Sosa (The Balusters)
• Paul Tazewell (Joe Turner's Come and Gone)

My thoughts aren't super strong here. Fairly or not, I think of costume design as kind of an unsung hero, the type of thing you only notice when it's either bad or truly exceptional. None of these hit that bar for me. I'd like to see Liberation win it--Abbandandolo dig great work setting the play in its time with the costumes--but I think they might throw a bone here to a show that's unlikely to win elsewhere.

PtP's Pick: Dog Day Afternoon

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Nominees:

• Linda Cho (Ragtime)
• Linda Cho (Schmigadoon!)
• Qween Jean (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Ryan Park (The Lost Boys)
• David I. Reynoso (Rocky Horror)

It's a shame they don't give out second-place Tonys, because that's where the real race here would be.

This will go to Cats and it will not be close.

PtP's Pick: Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Orchestrations

Nominees:

• Doug Besterman and Mike Morris (Schmigadoon!)
• Ethan Popp, Adrianne "AG" Gonzalez, Gabriel Mann, Kyler England (The Lost Boys)
• Lux Pyramid (Two Strangers)
• Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Brian Usifer (Chess)

There's a running joke in my household that I have no idea what "orchestrations" even means, so take this prediction with an appropriate amount of salt.

On the merits, I think this should go to Two Strangers, but I would not be upset with a win for Chess, as the music is about the only bearable piece of that show.

But who knows! Nothing would surprise me, and only a win for Lost Boys would upset me.

PtP's Pick: Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers

Best Sound Design of a Play

Nominees:

• Justin Ellington (Joe Turner's Come and Gone)
• Tom Gibbons (Oedipus)
• Lee Kinney (Fear of 13)
• Josh Schmidt (Bug)
• Mikaal Sulaiman (Death of a Salesman)

There was a lot of great, under-the-radar sound work this year. I give the edge to Oedipus. While Robert Icke's directorial concept was hit-and-miss, most of the "hit" was helped along greatly by Tom Gibbons' sound work. I can still hear the clock ticking down.

PtP's Pick: Tom Gibbons, Oedipus

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Nominees:

• Adam Fisher (The Lost Boys)
• Kai Harada (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Kai Harada (Ragtime)
• Brian Ronan (Rocky Horror)
• Walter Trarbach (Schmigadoon!)

This one feels like a potential "spread the love" candidate, which means it can go anyway but Ragtime's way. The sound design of The Lost Boys was good enough to stand out above the other elements of the show, but that's a low bar to clear. Cats and Rocky Horror have had some sound issues at time throughout their runs that I think prevent a win for them. I think the voters are going to generally turn their noses up at Schmigadoon!. Which means, unfortunately that my choice is clear.

PtP's Pick: Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Nominees:

• Isabella Byrd (Dog Day Afternoon)
• Natasha Chivers (Oedipus)
• Stacey Derosier (Joe Turner's Come and Gone)
• Heather Gilbert (Bug)
• Heather Gilbert (The Fear of 13)
• Jack Knowles (Death of a Salesman)

Your guess is as good a mine for this one, as this is our first true toss up. Isabella Byrd's lighting design is a highlight in an otherwise underwhelming production of Dog Day Afternoon, and likewise for Derosier's work on Joe Turner. My personal pick would be Jack Knowles for Death of a Salesman, but I think this ends up going to Heather Gilbert for Bug, where the lighting is indispensable both to portraying the characters descent into paranoia, as well as to making the set feel real and alive.

PtP's Pick: Heather Gilbert, Bug

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Nominees:

• Kevin Adams (Chess)
• Jen Schriever and Michael Arden (The Lost Boys)
• Jane Cox (Rocky Horror)
• Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design) (Ragtime)
• Donald Holder (Schmigadoon!)
• Adam Honoré (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)

This is another award where there isn't a nominee that really jumps out. I fear that The Lost Boys could get propped up with another win here, which would make sense as it seems Michael Arden might've spent more time on the lighting than the directing. But I could see this being one of the sparse awards that Chess or Schmigadoon! walk away with. Rocky Horror might be worth taking a flyer on as well.

But I know that it won't be Ragtime. Can't let them have everything.

PtP's Pick: Kevin Adams, Chess

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Nominees

• Hildegard Bechtler (Oedipus)
• Takeshi Kata (Bug)
• David Korins (Dog Day Afternoon)
• Chloe Lamford (Death of a Salesman)
• David Rockwell (Fallen Angels)

I'm confident in calling this one a two-horse race between Bug and Death of a Salesman. The set for Bug is a technical marvel. Genuinely, I don't know how Takeshi Kata pulled off some of the transitions. But, like the play itself, it doesn't necessarily say anything. It's like a Jeremy Jordan performance: technical perfection without the soul and depth for which we go to theatre.

The set that Chloe Lamford designed for Death of a Salesman, on the other hand, does say something. It's an integral piece of telling this American classic in a non-literal way. There are fewer moments of "wow, how did they do that?!?" but its strong, cohesive work that helps tie the play together.

PtP's Pick: Chloe Lamford, Death of a Salesman

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Nominees:

• dots (Rocky Horror)
• Soutra Gilmour (Two Strangers)
• Rachel Hauck (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Dane Laffrey (The Lost Boys)
• Scott Pask (Schmigadoon!)

I loved the set for Two Strangers. They use the space very creatively, hiding props and entire set pieces inside a stack of giant suitcases, all placed on two counter-rotating turntables. It works really well.

So it pains me to admit that there is simply no way that The Lost Boys does not win this award. It's a terrible show. If you go, don't pay full price. Seriously, it is not good! But the set is, unambiguously, incredible. Sure, they go through the bag of tricks really quickly, but it is a damn good bag of tricks. Trap doors, multiple levels, rigging sending actors flying in the air, giant set pieces descending from the rafters, you name it. Dane Laffrey has managed to pull off near Hollywood levels of special effects, live in a Broadway theatre.

Begrudgingly, it has my pick.

PtP's Pick: Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys

Best Choreography

Nominees:

• Christopher Gattelli (Schmigadoon!)
• Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant (The Lost Boys)
• Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Ellenore Scott (Ragtime)
• Ani Taj (Rocky Horror)

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Ragtime, The Lost Boys, and Schmigadoon! are going to be duking it out here. They all have really tight choreography, great group numbers, and The Lost Boys has the added bonus of navigating the technical challenge of choreography through the air with multiple actors at once.

It's going to be a real battle between those three shows... for a second-place Tony, because this one is going to Cats by a country mile.

PtP's Pick: Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Best Book of a Musical

Nominees

• The Lost Boys
• Schmigadoon!
• Titanique
• Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Another easy choice here. The book for The Lost Boys was downright horrific--an expositional affront to the very concept of good writing. Two Strangers, on the other hand, boasts a book that is tight as a drum from start to finish. The others fall somewhere in between on this spectrum.

PtPs Pick: Two Strangers

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Nominees:

• Caroline Shaw (Death of a Salesman)
• Steve Bargonetti (Joe Turner's Come and Gone)
• The Rescues (The Lost Boys)
• Cinco Paul (Schmigadoon!)
• Jim Barne and Kit Buchan (Two Strangers)

It's always interesting when a play is nominated for Best Original Score. This year, we have two. The music in Death of Salesman is excellent, but I cannot help but wonder how much this group of nominees is a function of the exceptionally weak slate of new musicals this year. The score of The Lost Boys is one of its least offensive components--an enjoyable-if-basic rock show throughout. Two Strangers is an excellent show, but its music doesn't necessarily wow.

I can see this going to any of those three. On the merits, it should go to Death of a Salesman, but the bar for a play to win this award feels higher than it should be. Of the musicals, I want it to be Two Strangers, but cannot discount the possibility that The Lost Boys gets propped up with a win here. Another true tossup.

PtP's Pick: Caroline Shaw, Death of a Salesman

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Nominees:

• Christopher Abbott (Death of a Salesman)
• Danny Burstein (Marjorie Prime)
• Brandon J. Dirden (Waiting for Godot)
• Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw)
• Ruben Santiago-Hudson (Joe Turner's Come and Gone)
• Richard Thomas (The Balusters)

I'm torn on this one. I'm throwing out Santiago-Hudson if only because I still have beef with him over the offensively bad production of The Other Americans he directed last year. (Sorry, I'm still not over it.) But the rest all have a case. For me, I think it comes down to Christopher Abbott and Alden Ehrenreich, and it's neck and neck. Ehrenreich's part in Becky Shaw is arguably the leading role of an ensemble piece, while Christopher Abbott's Biff is clearly a "featured" part in Death of a Salesman. My head says Abbott, but my heart says Ehrenreich, so that's what I'm going with.

PtP's Pick: Alden Ehrenreich

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Nominees:

• Betsy Aidem (Liberation)
• Marylouise Burke (The Balusters)
• Aya Cash (Giant)
• Laurie Metcalf (Death of a Salesman)
• June Squibb (Marjorie Prime)

The only guarantee here is a lot of folks being disappointed that June Squibb doesn't set a record as the oldest Tony Winner; she'll have to settle for oldest nominee. I'm not sure why Aya Cash was nominated, as I found her performance in Giant rather lackluster. Which leaves us with Burke, Aidem, and Metcalf. Aidem has an outside chance, but at the end of the day I think that this is Laurie Metcalf's award to lose for her stunning performance as Linda Loman.

PtP's Pick: Laurie Metcalf

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Nominees:

• Ali Louis Bourzgui (The Lost Boys)
• André De Shields (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)
• Bryce Pinkham (Chess)
• Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime)
• Layton Williams (Titanique)

Bourzgui deserves a nod here for his work in Lost Boys but, while his performance elevates it, the material is just too poor for anyone to win a Tony off of it. Likewise for Bryce Pinkham, who made the Chess book a little bit more bearable. No easy feat...

André De Shields is a dark horse pick, but I think anti-Cats bias will win out and clear the way for Ben Levi Ross. He's truly excellent in Ragtime, and in my book deserves to win for his rendition of The Night That Goldman Spoke in Union Square alone.

Ben Levi Ross takes it, and Ragtime begins its roll towards history.

PtP's Pick: Ben Levi Ross

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Nominees:

• Shoshana Bean (The Lost Boys)
• Hannah Cruz (Chess)
• Rachel Dratch (Rocky Horror)
• Ana Gasteyer (Schmigadoon!)
• Nichelle Lewis (Ragtime)

I simply cannot get over what a weak season of musicals this year has been. Shoshana Bean has a great voice, and--like most of her cast mates--does an admirable job with some truly terrible material, but there is no Tony for gilding a turd. Hannah Cruz is in a similar boat with Chess.

It feels like a bold prediction, but I think this one goes to Nichelle Lewis. It's the smallest of the parts nominated and it's easy to overlook her performance next to the tour-de-force trio of Joshua Henry, Caissie Levy, and Brandon Uranowitz. But I think this is a rising tide lifts all boats situation.

PtP's Pick: Nichelle Lewis

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Nominees:

• Will Harrison (Punch)
• Nathan Lane (Death of a Salesman)
• John Lithgow (Giant)
• Daniel Radcliffe (Every Brilliant Thing)
• Mark Strong (Oedipus)

Another two horse race. John Lithgow is getting a lot of buzz for Giant, with many calling it a career-defining performance. Personally, I was underwhelmed.

But Nathan Lane. Good god, Nathan Lane! He took on the most demanding role in the theatre and downright dissolved into it. His is, no-question, a career-defining performance, but more than that it's a character defining performance. The only comparison I can think of is Marlon Brando as Stanley Kowalski. Lane's Loman is the Loman now and it will be for a very, very long time.

Mark Strong is the dark horse candidate. Sometimes it feels as if "previous Tony wins" is a shadow criteria for the voters; the more you have as a performer, the harder it becomes to get another one. Lane has three, Lithgow has two, Strong has none. Combine that with his respectable showing in one of theatre's oldest, most well known roles, and the upset potential is clear.

But it shouldn't happen.

Nathan Lane should win his fourth.

PtP's Pick: Nathan Lane

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Nominees:

• Rose Byrne (Fallen Angels)
• Carrie Coon (Bug)
• Susannah Flood (Liberation)
• Lesley Manville (Oedipus)
• Kelli O'Hara (Fallen Angels)

Another true toss up! Carrie Coon's frightening descent into madness in Bug was a powerhouse performance, but I think her case is hurt by the play's overall lack of ability to say anything of substance. Susannah Flood manages to make 1,082 people feel like they've made a new friend every night right from her opening monologue, and she impresses throughout with a raw vulnerability that we can only get from live theatre at its best. Lesley Manville is the real star of Oedipus, somehow managing to make The Original Plot Twist feel surprising and fresh.

The Tony could go to any of those three. Hell, it could go to either of the women from Fallen Angels, but I think the comparative lack of buzz around the show makes that less likely.

PtP's Pick: Lesley Manville

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Nominees:

• Nicholas Christopher (Chess)
• Luke Evans (Rocky Horror)
• Joshua Henry (Ragtime)
• Sam Tutty (Two Strangers)
• Brandon Uranowitz (Ragtime)

Despite a weak season, this year's best musical actor race is one where you wish they could give out multiple awards.

I'd love to see Sam Tutty win for his performance in Two Strangers. He's delightful, vocally impressive, and gives an acting performance that genuinely moved the needle for me on how I live my own life. And isn't that what theatre is for?

He'd have a great chance to win, were it not for Brandon Uranowitz and his downright stellar turn as Tateh in Ragtime...who himself would have a great chance to win, were it not for his cast mate Joshua Henry.

But Joshua Henry is simply untouchable. Forget career-defining, forget role-defining, Henry's performance is downright genre-defining. Every musical actor, whether they've been aware of it or not, has been striving to do what Henry has done in this role. It's easy to to throw around words like "perfection", but thats what it is: perfection. If you have the chance to see it before it closes, do it. Whatever it takes.

To quote Same Tutty in a recent interview, "Joshua Henry. MVP. Biggest Fan. Give it to him I don't care!"

PtP's Pick: Joshua Henry.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Nominees:

• Sara Chase (Schmigadoon!)
• Stephanie Hsu (Rocky Horror)
• Caissie Levy (Ragtime)
• Marla Mindelle (Titanique)
• Christiani Pitts (Two Strangers)

This one is much closer, but I think Caissie Levy rides a weak overall season and an incredible Ragtime production to her first Tony award. She deserves it, too!

I could see this one being a surprise though, and maybe going to Hsu, Chase, or Mindelle--take your pick, but Hsu is probably the most likely "surprise." The only outcome that would disappoint me would be a win for Christiani Pitts who, while strong, is unfortunately saddled with the weaker songs in Two Strangers.

PtP's Pick: Caissie Levy

Best Direction of a Play

Nominees:

• Nicholas Hytner (Giant)
• Robert Icke (Oedipus)
• Kenny Leon (The Balusters)
• Joe Mantello (Death of a Salesman)
• Whitney White (Liberation)

In my mind, a best direction winner needs to hit a few criteria. The direction needs to take a swing, to have both a fresh take and some sort of positive impact on the play itself. It needs to happen in a show not clearly carried off by another aspect--like a specific performer, or stellar writing, or effects. And it needs to not make any mistakes.

Giant likely would not have made it to Broadway at all without John Lithgow above-the-title. Oedipus takes swings, but falls flat too often. Liberation is much more impacted by its cast and its writing than by the direction.

Now, Death of a Salesman... I know, I know, we've got Nathan Lane, and Laurie Metcalf, and one of the greatest scripts of the American canon in the mix here. But that's what makes it a directorial canvas, and Joe Mantello painted a near-masterpiece. Clear point of view, excellent execution, and the courage to make "obvious" choices that work flawlessly should give Death of a Salesman another piece of hardware.

PtP's Pick: Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman

Best Direction of a Musical

Nominees:

• Michael Arden (The Lost Boys)
• Lear deBessonet (Ragtime)
• Christopher Gattelli (Schmigadoon!)
• Tim Jackson (Two Strangers)
• Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch (Cats: The Jellicle Ball)

While I can acknowledge that this may be my own bias talking, I think this one goes to Two Strangers. Michael Arden was asleep at the wheel for Lost Boys, Lear deBessonet didn't really do anything different with Ragtime after transferring the City Center Encores production, which was a bit thin from a directorial point of view. Cats could be the surprise here, but I think Tim Jackson wins the day.

PtP's Pick: Tim Jackson, Two Strangers

Best Revival of a Play

Nominees:

• Becky Shaw by Gina Gionfriddo
• Death of a Salesman
• Every Brilliant Thing by Duncan Macmillan with Jonny Donahoe
• Fallen Angels by Noel Coward
• Oedipus

A nomination here is incredibly generous for Every Brilliant Thing. It deserves a Tony award like Rupi Kaur deserves to be Poet Laureate, which is to say, not at all.

But the others all have a strong case, and I think that they fall into a clear hierarchy.

Oedipus didn't quite hit the home run that it was swinging for, but I appreciate that it took a swing, and it ended up being a great show. It would be a strong pick to win if it weren't for Becky Shaw, which--while not quite as bold in its big picture choices--executes flawlessly. It would be a strong pick to win... if it weren't for Death of Salesman.

Really, with one of the best scripts of the American canon and one of the most gifted actors of a generation in the leading role, it isn't a fair fight. This one's a no-doubter.

PtP's Pick: Death of a Salesman

Best Revival of a Musical

Nominees:

• Cats: The Jellicle Ball
• Ragtime
• The Rocky Horror Show

Sorry, Rocky Horror, this is a two-horse race, and you're not one of them. This latest version of Cats has transformed Andrew Lloyd Webber's notorious, coked-out fever dream of a musical into something genuinely good. A commendable feat!

But Ragtime. Oh, Ragtime. The expectations were sky-high from the moment that Joshua Henry stepped on stage at City Center. Yet somehow, after transferring to Broadway, Henry and co. have managed to exceed them, putting on a new "definitive" performance of a classic on par with last years revival of Gypsy with Audra McDonald.

If anyone is willing to take the other side of this bet, let me know; I'll be taking out a mortgage to wager on Ragtime.

PtP's Pick: Ragtime

Best Play

Nominees

• The Balusters by David Lindsay-Abaire
• Giant by Mark Rosenblatt
• Liberation by Bess Wohl
• Little Bear Ridge Road by Samuel D Hunter

Giant and Liberation are the clear contenders in my view, and they share some similarities. Both have gotten a lot of buzz. Both have received stellar reviews from audiences and critics alike. Both tackle fraught politic topics, or at least try to.

But this won't be close. I couldn't tell you why Giant is getting so much love; the script is poorly written, John Lithgow is the captain of a mediocre cast, and the production overall is boring, risk averse, and shallow.

Liberation, on the other hand, is as advertised. Pulitzer-winning writing, standout performances, and a bold overall production will win Liberation another marquee award.

PtPs Pick: Liberation

Best Musical

Nominees

• The Lost Boys
• Schmigadoon!
• Titanique
• Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Not to pile on, but it's been a dogs-breakfast of a season as far as new musicals go. The Lost Boys over indexed on set and effects, eschewing the need for a halfway decent script. There's still an unfortunate chance that the voters end up blinded by spectacle and reward it with an overall Best Musical Tony, but it would be a real shame to cheapen the awuard by giving it to Lost Boys. Schmigadoon! and Titanique, while delighting to some, both feel a shade unserious. I don't want to see a spoof parody winning Best Musical. I know, I am not beating the "elitist piece of shit" allegations with this take, but it's how I feel.

Which leaves us with Two Strangers, a delightfully refreshing original transferred from London. In a stronger year, I'd be less confident, but against this competition it should win easily. And it will deserve it!

PtPs Pick: Two Strangers

So, a lot of bold predictions here! First, I think Schmigadoon! goes 0-for-12, which would tie the record for most nominations without a single win. It would be the fourth to do so, joining The Scottsboro Boys (2011), Mean Girls (2018), and Slave Play (2020). The Lost Boys could join this unfortunate club as well, but I will be shocked if they don't win Scenic Design at the least. Rocky Horror is also set up for a very disappointing night, taking home zero hardware from their nine nominations. If I'm right, a total of 13 shows nominated for at least one award will go home empty handed, which is on the lower end of average.

On the positive end, Death of a Salesman has the chance to be just the fourth play ever to win 3 out of 4 acting awards. I think it wins two, but if I'm wrong on Abbott vs. Ehrenreich (and correct about everything else), Death of a Salesman will join an exclusive club and become just the the second production ever to win three acting awards, Best Revival or Best Play, and Best Direction (The other was 1984's The Real Thing). It would be the only revival to ever hit that mark, besting the current record held by 1998's A View From the Bridge and 1999's Death of a Salesman. Turns out Arthur Miller knows his stuff.

This is truly as good as it gets: no play has ever been nominated for all four acting awards.

Then we come to Ragtime. In the entire history of the Tony Awards, only one musical has ever swept the acting categories: the original production of South Pacific in 1950. It won every single award it was nominated for, going a perfect 10-for-10. Ragtime isn't going to bat 1.000, but it is going to become just the second musical ever to sweep the acting categories. It will also win Best Revival. If it does, this production of Ragtime will have a very strong case for the best musical revival in Broadway history, a spot currently held by the 2008 revival of... South Pacific.

It's a great year to be a revival!